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台風1216号による長崎県の高潮を対象とした数値シミュレーション

ラクナス D.P.C.^＊１・伊藤 一教^＊１・本田 隆英^＊１・高畠 知行^＊１

本研究では，2012年9月に発生した台風16号の高精度な再現計算を目的とし，気象・海象統合モデルを用いて長崎県周辺の高潮数値計算を行った。
従来，台風の風速場と気圧場の再現には経験式が用いられてきたが，本研究では局地的な気象予測モデルであるMM5とデルフト３D（波・流れ統合モデル）を用いて高潮の数値計算を行い，本モデルの再現性の高さを確認した。さらに，近年公開された気象モデルDDCT（Delft Dashboard Cyclone Tools）との比較検討を実施し，両モデルの適用性について整理した。

＊１ 技術センター 土木技術研究所 水域・環境研究室

Storm Surge Simulation in Nagasaki during the Passage of 2012 Typhoon SANBA

D.P.C. LAKNATH^*1, Kazunori ITO^*1, Takahide HONDA^*1 and Tomoyuki TAKABATAKE^*1

As a result of global warming effect, storm surges generated by extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones, typhoons and hurricanes, significantly impact to the life and property in storm-surge prone coastal low-lying areas. Therefore, numerical modeling systems, comprising meteorological, hydrodynamic and wave simulation capabilities are essential for the storm surge hindcasting and forecasting phases in disaster mitigation and management processes. Accordingly, we assessed the applicability of two meteorological simulation methods; (1) Mesoscale Meteorological Model MM5 and (2) Delft Dashboard (DDB) Tropical Cyclone Tool, together with Delft3D FLOW-WAVE coupled modeling system to simulate the storm surges in Nagasaki coast during the passage of 2012 typhoon SANBA. Strom surge generated by MM5-Delft3D and DDB-Delft3D systems in Nagasaki area were reasonably agreed with the observations. Thus, applicability of both meteorological simulation techniques together with Delft3D FLOW-WAVE coupled modeling system to simulate the storm surge was validated with a reasonable level of accuracy. Further, compared to the MM5-Delft3D system, fast and easy simulation capability of DDB-Delft3D system was identified. However, in terms of accuracy, MM5-Delft3D system demonstrated much better performance in outer regions of the typhoon than the DDB-Delft3D system.